In 2013, the development of China's coating industry achieved another peak. Many people believe that with the rapid development of the real estate industry, the domestic coating industry is a highly profitable occupation. However, when the China Paint Purchasing Network revised this question with industry insiders recently, he gave us a different answer. He said: Although the current development focus of the domestic real estate profession has changed, the impact on the development of the paint profession is not great, so there is still room for the development of the paint profession. But having room for development does not mean that there is room for profit. The fluctuations in labor costs, management costs, and raw material quotations have squeezed the profitability of coating companies. In addition, the question of capital turnover between companies has made coating companies even more troublesome. So in the second half of the year, how will the Chinese coatings market develop, and will the profitability of coating companies improve? China Paint Purchasing Network believes that today we will comprehensively analyze the factors of the current domestic economy, real estate industry and various aspects.
Economic development trend
Although the paint profession is very small among many professions, it is closely related to everyone's life. Economic trends at home and abroad will also have a great impact on the development of the coating industry. Since 2008, the development of Asian macroeconomics has been relatively stable, while the macroeconomics of Europe and North America have not been ideal. According to China Coatings Purchasing Network, in 2014, every country in the world cannot escape the cycle of "deleveraging-debubbling-leverage cycle-bubble burst". The monetary policy of the United States began to bear fruit, and the fiscal policy shifted to reducing deficits. European countries are experiencing a period of determination to recover, exports stabilized, and property quotations stabilized. The property quotations of emerging market countries India and Brazil have peaked and fallen.
In the first quarter of 2014, China's macro economy as a whole showed that the real economy continued to weaken, and the speculative flames needed to be cooled. In the first quarter, the national industrial added value above planning increased by 8.7% year-on-year based on comparable quotations, and the growth rate was 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. There are two main reasons for this appearance, one is the increase in industrial production and labor costs, and the other is the shift in economic investment. A lot of funds flowed to the real estate and finance sectors where profitability was "short and fast", rather than the long-term real economy, which to a certain extent resulted in a decline in industrial output growth.
The weakening of the macroeconomic growth rate will have a depressing effect on the development of our industry and real estate occupations. This will be detrimental to the development of the domestic coating industry and will severely affect the growth rate of the Chinese coating industry. This appearance has been highlighted in 2013. Before 2013, the growth rate of the Chinese coating industry continued to be around 10%, while the year-on-year growth rate of the Chinese coating industry in 2013 fell to 3%. The weaker economic growth rate has a lot to do with it.
Real estate career
At a time when the domestic and foreign macro-economy was greatly shaken, the real estate industry was the first to be involved. At present, the real estate industry is the fastest-growing industry in construction coatings. As of the end of 2013, the annual output of Chinese construction coatings has accounted for the national coating 48% of the output, so the development of the real estate industry is the primary element related to the development of the Chinese paint industry. According to China Coatings Purchasing Network, from January to April 2014, the national real estate development investment was 222.2 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 16.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than that in the first three months. During this period, residential investment was 1.5299 billion yuan, an increase of 16.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2%, accounting for 68.5% of real estate development investment.
From January to April, the construction area of real estate development companies' houses was 56478.82 million square meters, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped 1.4 percentage points from January to March. In the meantime, the construction area of residences was 405,408 square meters, an increase of 9.9%. The newly started area of houses was 43234 million square meters, down 22.1%, and the rate of decrease narrowed by 3.1 percentage points. During this period, the newly started area of residences was 311.84 million square meters, a decrease of 24.5%. The floor space of houses completed was 236.85 million square meters, down 0.3%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 4.6 percentage points. During the period, the completed area of residences was 178.83 million square meters, down 2.1%.
From January to April, the area of land purchased by real estate development companies was 81.3 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points from January to March; the transaction price of land was 221.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.8 percentage points.
From January to April, the area of commercial housing sold was 277.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from January to March. In the meantime, the area of residences sold fell by 8.6%, the area of office buildings sold fell 0.2%, and the area of houses sold for commercial operations increased 3.4%. Commercial housing sales amounted to 1,830.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.8%, and the rate of decline expanded by 2.6 percentage points from January to March. During the period, residential sales fell by 9.9%, office building sales fell 10.2%, and commercial business housing sales increased 3.5%.
From the above analysis, it is not difficult for us to see that in the first quarter of 2014, the area invested by China's real estate industry in construction continued to increase steadily, while the area for sale declined slightly. This is important for the development of interior wall coatings and interior decoration coatings. It will be very bad. According to the current development of China's real estate industry, China Coatings Purchasing Network believes that during the next six months of development, the real estate policy has been loosened, and the purchase restriction policy has been relaxed in most cities. There are two reasons for this: the first is short-term, aiming to resolve the risk of cracking the capital chain of some small real estate developers. The government can purchase some projects as guaranteed housing through the issuance of municipal bonds, which is tantamount to transferring the developer's leverage to the public sector; the second is to settle down. In the medium term (3-5 years), the government can reduce mortgage interest rates by establishing a residential policy, and promote the securitization of real estate mortgage assets to influence demand, which is tantamount to shifting developers' leverage to the residential sector.
The state has increased the control of the real estate industry, which has made the real estate industry more and more away from shopping malls and turned to programmatic. This is very detrimental to the long-term development of the real estate industry, and of course it will prevent the development of China's construction of the paint industry. The proceduralization of real estate occupations in first- and second-tier cities and the white-hot construction of third- and fourth-tier townships will be greatly restricted by the increase in paint construction in China. Based on this situation, China Coatings Purchasing Network believes that the increase rate of China's building coatings in 2014 will continue to be 5%. In addition to the real estate industry, the manufacturing industry has also influenced the development of the Chinese paint industry. According to the China Paint Purchasing Network, China’s industrial coatings accounted for 30% of the total paint output in 2013, following the construction of the paint industry. The second largest branch occupation. Industrial production increased steadily in 2013. The total industrial added value for the whole year was 21,068.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6% over the previous year. The industrial added value above the plan increased by 9.7%. Among the industries above the planning, in terms of economic types, state-owned and state-controlled companies increased by 6.9%; collective companies increased by 4.3%, joint-stock companies increased by 11.0%, foreign, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-funded companies increased by 8.3%; private companies increased by 12.4%. In terms of different categories, the mining industry increased by 6.4%, the manufacturing industry increased by 10.5%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 6.8%. This has greatly boosted the rapid development of the industrial coatings industry.
Since 2014, the domestic production profession has continued to rise in 2013. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics: In March, 40 occupations among 41 major occupations continued to increase year-on-year in value added. During the period, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 8.2%, the textile industry increased by 6.1%, the chemical raw material and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 11.5%, the non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 10.1%, the ferrous metal training and rolling processing industry increased by 7.9%, and the non-ferrous metal industry The exercise and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7%, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.7%, the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 10.7%, the car manufacturing industry increased by 11.7%, the railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.7%, and the electrical machinery And the device manufacturing industry increased by 10.4%, the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 15.3%, and the electricity, heat production and supply industry increased by 4.1%.
As the domestic macro economy continues to pick up, while foreign trade affairs continue to rise, domestic market demand will also be greatly stimulated. Therefore, China Paint Purchasing Network believes that China's production profession will continue to increase slightly in 2014, further promoting the entire coating profession Development. In the end, this website believes that the growth of China's industrial coatings industry in 2014 will be greater than that of the construction coatings industry, and the total output of industrial coatings will maintain an increase rate of around 5%.
After the above analysis, we have a deep understanding of the current development of the domestic economy, real estate profession and production profession. In summary, China Coatings Purchasing Network believes that the total output of China's coatings will reach 14.5 million tons in 2014, a year-on-year An increase of 7.8%.